China affirms expanded NDCs will encompass all domains
China Announces Ambitious Updated NDCs for 2035
China has announced that its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035 will cover all greenhouse gases and all economic sectors, marking a significant update from previous NDCs. The announcement was made by Chinese President Xi Jinping at a leaders' meeting on climate change convened by the UN Secretary-General on April 23.
The updated NDCs are expected to be announced before the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Belém, COP 30, in November 2025. This announcement comes in response to America's recent withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
Under the new NDCs, the power sector will see a dramatic expansion of renewable energy, with the aim to double wind and solar capacity by 2035 to between 2,910 and 3,800 GW, roughly twice current levels. The share of electricity generated from non-fossil fuels is expected to exceed 70% by 2035, with wind and solar alone reaching around 50%.
These measures, particularly in the power sector, which is China's largest emitter, are expected to result in significant emissions reductions. The power-sector emissions are projected to be reduced by roughly 36-42% below 2024 levels by 2035, consistent with a trajectory limiting warming to 2°C. This alignment with global 2°C goals will help China make substantial progress towards carbon neutrality by 2060.
The updated NDCs will also help push power-sector emissions down substantially by 2035, contributing to broader economy-wide emission declines. The NDCs will integrate both renewable scale-up and controlled coal usage as a "bottom-line guarantee" for energy stability during the transition.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates that these updated, more ambitious NDCs could reduce China's CO2 emissions by at least 30% by 2035. This comprehensive approach reflects China’s intention to enhance ambition and address the full scope of emissions across sectors.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the clarification made by China, emphasizing the importance of building on the momentum of renewable energy deployment. This announcement from China is eagerly awaited and closely watched as leaders prepare for a trip to Brazil in November. President Xi Jinping, in his address, reiterated, "Instead of talking the talk, we must walk the talk."
A fresh round of NDC announcements is expected this year, and China's updated NDCs are set to lead the way in demonstrating increased ambition and comprehensive climate action.
- The updated NDCs from China will cover all greenhouse gases and all economic sectors, signifying a shift towards comprehensive climate action.
- In the power sector, the updated NDCs aim to double wind and solar capacity by 2035, with renewable energy playing a significant role.
- The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates that these updated NDCs could reduce China's CO2 emissions by at least 30% by 2035, pointing towards a healthier environment and wellness.
- These ambitious NDCs are expected to align with global 2°C goals, helping China make substantial progress towards carbon neutrality by 2060, a goal that requires environmental-science and technology.
- The updated NDCs will integrate both renewable scale-up and controlled coal usage, indicating a shift in finance towards sustainable and renewable energy sources.
- As leaders prepare for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Belém, COP 30, in November 2025, China's updated NDCs will set a benchmark for other nations, potentially influencing business strategies in industries like lifestyles, food-and-drink, and technology.
- The data and cloud-computing sector may play a crucial role in tracking and managing the implementation of these ambitious climate commitments, while sports-betting and travel industries may be influenced by the broader economic shifts driven by these NDCs.
