Imports Surge Expected This Summer as Retailers Prepare for Holidays
After a dip in May due to higher tariffs, imports are set to surge through the summer as retailers gear up for the back-to-school and fall-winter holiday seasons. The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates' Global Port Tracker report predicts a busy second half of 2025, despite the impact of tariffs.
May saw a significant drop in imports, with a projected year-over-year decline of 8.1%. This was largely due to retailers pausing purchases and imports earlier in the year because of high tariffs. However, with a 90-day reduction in tariffs on China, retailers are now resuming imports. June is expected to see a bounce back, although numbers will still be lower than last year.
Looking ahead, the first half of 2025 is forecast to see a 3.7% year-over-year increase in imports. The peak for winter holiday imports is expected to come early this year, coinciding with the back-to-school season. However, if higher tariffs are not delayed again, imports are expected to decline in the final four months of 2025.
The Global Port Tracker report provides historical data and forecasts for major U.S. container ports, indicating a mixed outlook for imports in the coming months. While the summer is expected to see a surge in imports, the impact of tariffs could lead to a decline later in the year.
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